President Donald Trump's impact on the mobility sector has been significant, though mixed, due to his policies and priorities during his last presidency. As he took office last Monday and signed over 100 anticipated executive orders, there was a higher certainty regarding the policies during his presidency.
Here, we offer a rating of the technologies within the mobility ecosystem to indicate the level of impact expected during Trump 2.0.
1. Electrification
Yes, Trump's administration is expected to slow down U.S. electric vehicle (EV) progress, as he revoked Biden’s 50% EV target and froze unspent government funds for vehicle charging stations from a $5 billion fund on his first day in the office. He also called for ending a waiver for states to adopt a zero-emission vehicle rule by 2035 and said his administration would consider ending EV tax credits.
However, some policies he proposed earlier will probably favor domestic battery technologies as well as grid tech. According to Reuters, his team was considering imposing tariffs on EV-related imports like batteries and critical minerals, and expanding export restrictions on EV battery technologies to adversarial nations. Trump’s cabinet is likely to adopt a defense-focused battery strategy that prioritizes battery minerals for defense needs and increases support for domestic battery production and recycling, by passing some environmental reviews.
Despite the all-in support for oil and gas, we don’t expect any headwinds for grid tech since a resilient grid is essential to the burgeoning data center and semiconductor factories, which are key in the artificial intelligence (AI) race. In fact, Trump’s support for small nuclear reactors during his first term is likely to resume, which will provide some relief to the grid.
Overall, we believe technologies catering to both internal combustion engine (ICE) and EV markets are likely to thrive amid shifting political priorities. While EV adoption may slow, grid technologies initially aimed at supporting electrified mobility will find new momentum from the growing demands of AI across various sectors. Additionally, there are alternative opportunities in areas such as battery recycling, domestic mining, and the military applications of EV technologies.
2. Autonomy
Autonomous driving technologies are also likely to benefit from the Trump era. Trump’s first administration took a relatively hands-off approach to regulating autonomous vehicles. Under his leadership, the Department of Transportation (DOT) released a policy framework for autonomous vehicles that was more focused on removing regulatory barriers than providing robust safety requirements. However, on day one, he reduced regulations on artificial intelligence development by rescinding Biden's Sweeping AI Order in Regulatory Reset, and has appointed Tesla CEO Elon Musk to help cut bureaucracy. Expanding pilot programs could accelerate data collection and the commercialization of self-driving technology.
He is also likely to ease the autonomous driving rules which could mean more vehicles on the road moving forward. Unlike some other countries, Trump’s first administration did not push for large-scale investments in autonomous vehicle development or infrastructure. However, his administration emphasized innovation and technology, driven by the belief that the U.S. should be a global leader in emerging technologies. As a result, we are likely to observe greater financial interest in autonomous driving technologies, both on and off the road.
3. Connectivity
President Trump’s previous administration pushed for a faster rollout of 5G networks, which are essential for vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communications, autonomous driving, and smart mobility applications. We expect the roll out of 5G infrastructure to accelerate this time, indirectly benefiting the automotive sector's push for greater connectivity.
Before Trump took office, the Biden administration finalized a ban on the use of Chinese and Russian hardware and software in internet-connected vehicles on U.S. roads. The software-related bans will affect 2027 model year vehicles, while hardware bans will affect 2030 model year vehicles, or on January 1, 2029 for vehicles without a designated model year. We expect Trump to ride with this ban, continuing to limit the Chinese and Russian connected vehicle supply chains.
Cybersecurity in general is also a bipartisan issue. During his first administration, Trump took a tough stance on international cyber warfare. This time, Trump is expected to encourage the use of AI for national security. That said, cybersecurity related to the connected car will benefit from the macro trend.
4. Industrial Automation and Transformation
Robotics will get a boost from President Trump taking office again. Even though he prioritizes "putting American workers first" by addressing immigration, possibly leading to a significant labor shortage (particularly in low-skilled jobs), which could ultimately lead to higher costs or reliance on robots. Humanoid robots have been experiencing increased attention lately as some are tasked to perform ergonomically awkward and tiring tasks in manufacturing plants. With Musk as an unofficial tech advisor, and Trump’s reliance on David Sacks, attention, if not investment, will be drawn to industrial automation and the broader application of AI on the manufacturing floor over the next 4 years.
On Day 2, Trump announced up to $500 billion in private sector AI infrastructure investment, backed by Oracle, OpenAI, and Softbank, and he unveiled the Stargate AI initiative. The recent emergence of DeepSeek implies the decreasing cost of starting a competitive AI company. These are all good indicators of a favorable macro market, including regulatory and technological conditions, for investment in AI-driven manufacturing technology.
As we move forward into the new Trump administration, it is clear that his policies will continue to shape the tech landscape within the mobility ecosystem. While certain areas, such as electrification, may experience setbacks, other technologies like autonomy, connectivity, and industrial automation are poised for growth. The strategic focus on domestic innovation, reducing regulatory hurdles, and strengthening national security could lead to new opportunities for companies in the tech and mobility spaces. Although challenges remain, the evolving political environment may create a unique setting for technological advancement in the years ahead. As we monitor these shifts, the long-term implications for both the mobility sector and the broader tech ecosystem will continue to unfold.
What does all this mean for EnerTech’s investment strategy?
We are sticking to our thesis to invest in companies that have technologies that cross over from ICE to EVs
Our latest fund, EnerTech Arcadia Debt fund, which is backed by Pinnacle West (one of the leading utilities in the U.S.), will have a strong focus on the nexus between the growing data/AI sector and green molecules for power production and grid edge solutions
- Jiajia Zhou, Associate
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